Data Science × Chocolate

The season decides the year.
Your data knows how

9 modules along the path of the goods: from the seasonal volume via shelf space and promotion through the factory to cocoa coverage. Calculated on a fictitious sample company, with data a chocolate manufacturer already has - ERP, retailer sell-out, quality assurance, public price data.

Calculated savings potential per year
€0
Model calculation for a sample company with 140 items on 4 lines · derived from documented assumptions · gross effect before implementation costs

Numbers you can trace back

The starting point is a fictitious mid-sized chocolate manufacturer: €95 million net revenue, 380 employees, 12,000 tonnes of chocolate products per year, a milk- and filling-heavy range, sales to grocery retail, key accounts and a small direct channel. Every figure is derived from the documented assumptions.

9
Modules
140
Items in the sample company
€1,173,800
Savings potential/year
1 phase
Pilot

Six foundations and three modules beyond the usual

Each module answers one operational question with visualisations, a transparent model calculation and the calculation path. The order follows the path of the goods: season, shelf, factory, raw material.

🧠
AI strategy · read first
Own models instead of yet another dashboard
A dashboard shows what happened yesterday. A model on your data says what the next season brings, and learns with every week.
Read the strategy →
🔢
Transparency · methodology
Where the numbers come from: every assumption with source and certainty
Nine open calculation paths with formulas and a source list. Three scenarios: cautious €704,280 · base €1,173,800 · extended €1,643,320.
View the methodology →
Module 01
The Seasonal Volume
Demand forecast per item, channel and week with seasonal position and promotion calendar. Fewer write-offs after the season, fewer shelf gaps before it, fewer rush costs in between.
€331,500
Savings / year
Gradient BoostingHierarchie
Module 02
The Shelf Space
Delisting early warning from sell-out, category index and shelf audits. Reports the erosion of a marginal listing weeks before the buyer meeting.
€108,000
Retained contribution margin / year
AnomalieAbverkauf
Module 03
The Promotion
An effect model separates incremental sales from pulled-forward sales and cannibalisation within the range. The promotion budget moves to promotions with a contribution margin return above one.
€228,000
Better contribution margin / year
WirkungsmodellKausal
Module 04
The Changeover Sequence
Sequence optimisation with allergen and cleaning rules cuts changeover minutes, transition scrap and seasonal overtime - without a new line.
€162,000
Savings / year
OR-ToolsReihenfolge
Module 05
The Remaining Shelf Life
Durability per batch from quality and storage temperature data. Dispatch follows real remaining shelf life, not the production date - against write-offs and returns.
€154,800
Savings / year
Gradient BoostingQS-Daten
Module 06
The Cocoa Coverage
No price forecast. A regime model on public price data steers coverage ratio and minimum coverage - avoided dispersion of landed costs, kept separate from the total.
€216,000
Avoided dispersion / year
Regime-ModellDeckungsgrad

Three questions rarely answered with data although the data has long been there: the taste, the origin, the direct customer.

Savings potential by module - the eight modules that are added up

Not in the chart and not in the total: The Cocoa Coverage (€216,000). The amount is avoided dispersion of landed costs, not a cost advantage, and stands separately on the module page.

No theory - results in weeks

We work with the data you already have. No vendor lock-in, no cloud mandate, no hidden costs.

🍫
Industry knowledge + data science
We understand seasonal peaks, allergen changeovers, fat bloom and the retail one-third rule. Our models solve questions from the factory, not textbook exercises - GDPR-compliant and on your infrastructure.
Results before perfection
We deliver a pilot dashboard with real numbers from your data. No 6-month concept - you see the ROI before you invest.
🔒
Your data, your systems
ERP and sell-in, retailer sell-out data, promotion calendar, QA batch records, storage temperature loggers, public price data - we connect what already accumulates at your site. No new system.
Note on the context of this portfolio

The nine modules use a fictitious mid-sized chocolate manufacturer (€95 million net revenue, 140 items, 4 lines, a milk- and filling-heavy range) to show how data science can be applied along the path of the goods - from the seasonal volume to the origin of the cocoa.

All euro amounts are model calculations. They are derived from clearly named assumptions (assumption base → lever → result) and illustrate the order of magnitude, not a commitment. The total is a gross effect before implementation costs; no module has independent evidence for its degree of effect, the lever ratios are assumptions.

In a real project, knowledge of your factory is the decisive factor: which channels deliver sell-out data? How are lines and allergen profiles cut? Where do the biggest losses arise - after the season, on the shelf or in purchasing? On this basis, models emerge that fit your reality.

This series shows which questions data science can answer in a chocolate factory. The concrete answers only emerge with your data.

Ready to put your data to work?

We work with the data you already have. No vendor lock-in, no cloud mandate, no hidden costs.

Schedule a data workshop →